OPINION — For the reason that starting of the battle in Ukraine, I’ve discovered the acquainted rhetoric supporting Ukraine’s proper to self-defense in opposition to Russian aggression paying homage to the discourse that adopted America’s engagement in Afghanistan. From the outset, I apprehensive that Ukraine may expertise the identical trajectory: beneficiant help early on, adopted by political fatigue and eventual “abandonment.” The sample of growth of dependency—the place the supported authorities is unable to maintain itself with out steady support—may be deeply damaging and go away a nation susceptible.
Regrettably, as a substitute of using America’s affect to result in an early diplomatic decision to the Ukraine battle, President Joe Biden escalated army help, contributing to a chronic and more and more complicated battle. Ukraine has since turn into closely reliant on U.S. monetary support, weapons, and intelligence. But this help has usually appeared unstable, sometimes threatened by inside U.S. politics. Notably, President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled a willingness to halt help, a place that intensified following political tensions between his administration and President Volodymyr Zelensky. This rising reliance locations Kyiv in a susceptible place—strikingly just like the scenario Kabul confronted throughout the U.S.-Taliban negotiations beneath President Trump’s first time period. The U.S. held monumental leverage in each conflicts and thus bore a big accountability for his or her outcomes. As somebody who was concerned within the Afghanistan peace course of and follows Ukraine peace efforts carefully, I see a troubling resemblance between Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad’s dealings with the Taliban, and the way in which American politics at the moment are shaping Ukraine’s destiny.
President Trump has expressed sturdy curiosity in resolving the battle in Ukraine and has solid himself as a “President of Peace.” Because the chief of probably the most highly effective nation on the planet, he does possess the flexibility to affect the battle’s trajectory. Nevertheless, the essential query stays: what sort of peace is being pursued? Will it mirror the end result in Afghanistan, the place the U.S. successfully handed over energy to the very group liable for the 9/11 assaults, sidelining its allies and undermining their legitimacy? The U.S. should proceed with authority—not one other “Doha-style” deal which might ship harmful indicators globally, about America’s reliability as a peace maker, negotiator and at last accomplice.
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Parallels in Negotiation Dynamics:
There are a number of notable parallels between the U.S. strategy to the Afghanistan peace course of and its present involvement within the Ukraine battle. Whereas the contexts differ, the patterns in negotiation ways, therapy of allies, and use of leverage reveal putting similarities. These shared dynamics supply essential classes—classes that, if ignored, may result in repeated strategic failures. Three key parallels stand out:
1. Russia’s Insistence with the U.S.-Led Talks:
President Putin’s refusal to have interaction immediately with President Zelensky in Istanbul, insisting as a substitute on first reaching an understanding with the U.S., mirrors the Taliban’s place throughout the Doha talks. The Taliban demanded negotiations completely with the USA earlier than any engagement with the Afghan authorities. This tactic successfully marginalized the nationwide authorities, granting the Taliban better legitimacy. In Ukraine’s case, ought to Russia safe a cope with Washington that renders the U.S. impartial or much less engaged, it will doubtless tilt the battlefield dynamics in Moscow’s favor. We witnessed an analogous shift in Afghanistan, the place repeated Afghan objections to their exclusion have been dismissed as obstructionist to the peace talks. I recall a number of conferences on the presidential palace in Kabul, the place Ambassador Khalilzad emphasised that “the U.S. doesn’t want anybody’s permission to barter with the Taliban or to withdraw its troops.” This narrative turned a rhetorical weapon to close down legitimate issues about an orderly and inclusive peace course of.
2. Public Discrediting of Allies:
One other shared sample is the notion of “undermining allies.” In Afghanistan, Ambassador Khalilzad publicly criticized the Afghan authorities—particularly President Ashraf Ghani—for being an impediment to peace, relatively than acknowledging legit issues. Ghani’s polarizing management type made him a straightforward goal, permitting Khalilzad’s narrative to realize traction amongst Afghan elites and the general public. In Ukraine, the tone of public discourse from U.S. officers, together with the President, has at occasions appeared dismissive or essential of the Ukrainian authorities. This public framing may be damaging. It echoes the stress confronted by the Afghan authorities to make main concessions—equivalent to the discharge of 5,000 Taliban prisoners—regardless of warnings from Afghan management. In each circumstances, U.S. rhetoric has eroded the morale of accomplice forces and given adversaries the higher hand in psychological warfare. In Afghanistan, this contributed on to the collapse of state buildings and army cohesion. Language issues. Classes from Afghanistan ought to inform a extra cautious, respectful U.S. posture in Ukraine.
3. Conditioning Help and Misusing Leverage:
Threats to droop help for Ukraine, don’t advance peace. They embolden adversaries and sow uncertainty. American leverage ought to be used to finish violence, not danger enabling it. Any withdrawal of support ought to be tied to the profitable cessation of hostilities and institution of a viable simply peace. In any other case, efforts at diplomacy danger failing, and President Trump’s envisioned “peace legacy” might as a substitute be remembered as a geopolitical failure.
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Suggestions:
Primarily based on the teachings discovered from Afghanistan, the next advice is essential for avoiding comparable pitfalls in Ukraine:
Firstly, the U.S. should keep away from the essential mistake made throughout the Afghanistan peace course of—negotiating immediately with adversaries whereas sidelining legit nationwide governments. Within the case of Afghanistan, excluding the Afghan authorities and the Afghan folks from early phases of the U.S.-Taliban talks severely weakened its authority, emboldened the Taliban, and in the end led to the collapse of the Afghan state. This strategy not solely demoralized U.S. allies but in addition delegitimized them within the eyes of their very own folks and the worldwide neighborhood. In Ukraine, the USA should undertake a special course. Any peace initiative should place the Ukrainian authorities and the folks of Ukraine on the middle of negotiations—not as a passive recipient of choices made elsewhere, however as an energetic, equal stakeholder. Peace achieved with out the consent and management of each side of the battle—the Ukrainian folks and its adversaries—will likely be fragile, not sustainable, and short-lived.
Secondly, public messaging should replicate respect and unity. Criticizing allies in public, whereas signaling tolerance or engagement with aggressors behind closed doorways, undermines belief, morale, and credibility. Strategic ambiguity may be exploited by adversaries to sow discord, because it was by the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Ukraine deserves a peace course of that’s inclusive, dignified, and respectful of its sovereignty. The world can not afford a repeat of the Kabul situation—the place allies have been sidelined, and adversaries gaining upper-hand. The U.S. management, as all the time, have to be principled, constant, and anchored in classes discovered from previous missteps. If managed correctly, the peace course of in Ukraine may certainly mark a transformative legacy for American diplomacy, not solely because the accomplice to depend on however as a negotiator with making the precise deal.
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