When Donald Trump stated throughout the debate that crime incidents elevated within the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration, he was fact-checked. MAGA supporters Wednesday stated the FBI quietly adjusted its 2022 figures in latest weeks — after the controversy and the brand new numbers present Trump was proper.
First reported by RealClearInvestigations (RCI), the brand new numbers present that the uncooked variety of violent crime incidents — together with murders, assaults and rapes — rose to 1,256,671 in 2022 from 1,197,930 in 2021, a rise of 4.9 per cent.
In October of 2023, the FBI put out a press launch unveiling its nationwide crime knowledge for 2022, which discovered that “nationwide violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7 per cent in 2022 in comparison with 2021 estimates.”
“I’ve checked the information on whole violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” Faculty of William & Mary economics professor Carl Moody, who focuses on learning crime, informed RealClearInvestigations. “There have been no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there have been small adjustments of lower than one proportion level.
“The large adjustments in 2021 and 2022, particularly with out an evidence, make it troublesome to belief the FBI knowledge,” Moody added.
Elon Musk stated even the most recent FBI crime knowledge “massively understates” the issue.
MAGA supporters claimed Donald Trump was proper concerning the crime knowledge in ABC Information debate
The FBI’s crime stats revisions reveal how a lot guesswork is concerned in even the “last” numbers typically seized on by politicians. The FBI doesn’t merely depend reported crimes. As a substitute, it provides estimates by extrapolating knowledge from police departments that report solely partial-year knowledge. The Bureau additionally makes estimates for cities that report no knowledge. The FBI’s methodology of producing these estimates adjustments over time, and it impacts the figures they report, RCI stated.
