NPR’s David Folkenflik speaks to strategic research professor Phillips O’Brien of the College of St. Andrews in Scotland concerning the significance of Ukraine’s navy incursion into Russia.
DAVID FOLKENFLIK, HOST:
It is the largest invasion of Russia because the finish of World Struggle II – Ukraine’s shock incursion into the Kursk area. It surprised Moscow. The preventing has continued for 2 weeks now, and Russia’s vowed to retaliate with, quote, “a worthy response.” However might this operation change the very course of the battle? Becoming a member of us now could be Phillips O’Brien. He is a professor of strategic research at St. Andrews College in Scotland. Welcome to this system.
PHILLIPS O’BRIEN: Glad to be right here.
FOLKENFLIK: Professor O’Brien, simply what has Ukraine achieved, and the way important is it?
O’BRIEN: Nicely, they’ve modified quite a few issues. I imply, they have been by no means going to invade Russia and take Moscow. That was by no means, say, the aim of this operation. The offensive has quite a few causes. One, I feel, is to vary the – one of many dynamics of the battle, which was that, in a way, Russia was by no means to be attacked instantly over its border, that the US and fears of escalation and different of Ukraine’s companions haven’t needed Ukraine to assault Russia instantly. And the Ukrainians stated sufficient of this. Russia has had an enormous benefit by not having to defend their border. We’re going to make them should defend their border.
The second is, they realized the Russians have only a few reserves. The Russians have been placing every little thing into the Donbas. And so what the Ukrainians are saying – you don’t have any reserves. We will now make you attempt to transfer your troops round and defend yourselves since you’re weak in that sense.
One other factor is to point out the Russian navy is simply not this nice highly effective pressure that typically the Western press makes it out to be. The Russian navy is known as a ponderous group with some main weaknesses. And in doing this operation, the Ukrainians have proven us what these are.
FOLKENFLIK: Is there some hazard of overreach right here for the Ukrainians?
O’BRIEN: Nicely, the hazard that some persons are saying is it means the Ukrainians have used these forces right here as a substitute of throwing them into the Donbas. The Ukrainians I communicate to suppose this can be a nonsense argument. The Donbas is the place the Russians have nearly every little thing, they usually’re advancing very slowly by simply blowing issues up of their wake. So by simply throwing extra forces within the Donbas, the Ukrainians thought, it is simply placing your head right into a – to a meat grinder, that this was, in actual fact, a greater strategy to do it as a result of it performs on Russian weaknesses and takes the initiative away from Russia. So there are some Western analysts who say this can be a danger. The Ukrainians I communicate to do not settle for the chance that they’re being instructed they’re operating.
FOLKENFLIK: How massive a setback is that this for Russia and for President Vladimir Putin?
O’BRIEN: Nicely, I imply, if Ukraine can take a piece of Russia and fortify it and maintain it, this can be a massive drawback for Putin. Putin is a dictator. Dictators thrive on visions of energy, that they management their nation. They supply safety. If the Ukrainians can present that Putin cannot defend the border of Russia and, furthermore, cannot drive the Ukrainians again, that could be a massive drawback for Putin’s picture.
Additionally there are specific political issues we now have to look at. The Ukrainians have already captured numerous conscripts. And conscripts are the draftees who Putin has stated won’t ever go combat in Ukraine. However really, the Russians, trigger they do not have numerous reserves, have needed to ship conscripts to try to combat the Ukrainians, they usually’re dropping them. So there are numerous, we’d say, potential political pitfalls for Putin on this.
FOLKENFLIK: And lastly, what’s your sense of how this may play out within the coming weeks?
O’BRIEN: Nicely, I feel the Ukrainians are going to remain there and pressure the Russians to try to deploy a big military to drive them again. The Ukrainians do not feel any want to depart proper now. This is not a raid the place they’ll run in and run out in a couple of days, which some individuals thought to start with. They do not plan to occupy Russia endlessly, however they are not going to depart except the Russians deploy large pressure and attempt to drive them out. So I feel what we’ll do is see extra of the identical till the Russians, you might say, get critical and notice they’ll want a really massive pressure to try to push the Ukrainians again.
FOLKENFLIK: We have been talking with Phillips O’Brien of St Andrews College and creator of the forthcoming ebook “The Strategists.” Professor O’Brien, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us.
O’BRIEN: Thanks.
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